Est. 2025.08.22

How Long Until AGI?

🧠 A Collective Intelligence Experiment

Using the wisdom of crowds to predict when Artificial General Intelligence will arrive. Based on Francis Galton's 1906 ox weight experiment and the Law of Large Numbers.

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Distribution of Predictions

Prediction Trends Over Time

📊 The Science Behind This Experiment

In 1906, Francis Galton observed 787 people at a country fair guessing the weight of an ox. While individual guesses varied wildly, the median guess was 1,207 pounds—just 9 pounds off from the actual weight of 1,198 pounds.

"The result seems more creditable to the trustworthiness of a democratic judgment than might have been expected." — Francis Galton

This phenomenon demonstrates that aggregating diverse, independent judgments can produce remarkably accurate predictions. Can we apply this to predicting AGI? Join thousands of others in this global experiment.